Are the Days of Unlimited Internet Numbered?

With AT&T’s announcement of capping DSL broadband to 250GB, one must wonder, is the age of unlimited internet ending? After all, the government of Finland has declared that that broadband of 1 Mbps is a human right. If water and electricity are considered human rights, you’ll realize that both are metered. Without paying a high flat-rate, you pay for what you use. Why should the internet be any different? There was a time when electricity was unlimited, but as devices required more current and infrastructure costs increased, metered pricing was necessary.

AT&T recently introduced data caps for its DSL users

Caps, like what AT&T have instituted, are different than metered plans, the latter you pay for how much you use, and the former creates a limit where the charge will be higher.

A world of capped internet is not in the immediate future, but it may change the internet dramatically. In the dial-up age, internet connectivity was slow, so websites were optimized for the 56k connection, and simply loaded text and content.  When broadband became mainstream, websites responded becoming more interactive and multimedia oriented. Websites like Hulu and YouTube would not have attracted viewers, buffering wait times would have been too long. Even file-sharing only grew when peers had always-on unlimited broadband.

If internet usage was capped, how would users and websites respond? Gnutella clients and other peer-to-peer file sharing networks would take the largest hit, as they stream the most amount of content during the nighttime and all year long, whenever ­their computers are idle.

At first, not much would change for most internet users. Caps would likely be around the 250GB to 500GB mark, far more than what most web-surfers require. However, as bandwidth and hard drive technology has advances, the size of files moving through the internet has grown. Operating system patches and upgrades can be as big as 2 GB.  Verizon FiOS now offers 150Mbps download speeds, and Google’s fiber optic network boasting a theoretical 1 Gbps could be headed your way. At that speed, it would only take 250 seconds to fill AT&T’s data cap.  No file is that large today, but downloading large files from the cloud would require a second thought.  1080p HD Videos? 4K-ultra-high-resolution videos?  Bandwidth increases will soon be able to seamlessly support massive videos- one full-length 4K movie could require more than 100 GB.

Such actions taken by ISPs to cap internet usage would also have a large impact on Internet TV, increasing the price of Internet TV compared to cable. Running your TV for a few hours could be 8 GB. A month worth of watching TV for 3 hours every day would near 250 GB.

Such change isn’t likely, but it will be interesting to see how the internet’s content and information will evolve to meet and fit the guidelines of the capped (or even metered) broadband world.

 

The Death of the Point and Shoot Camera: Right on Time

The death of the point and shoot camera is inversely proportional to the rise of the smartphone.  The death of the point and shoot isn’t tied as closely to the regular-old cameraphone. Why? Because the smartphone can instantly share pictures, edit them, post them on Facebook or Twitter. The pictures taken by a smartphone also have GPS metadata, rare in point and shoots.  A point and shoot has to be wired to a computer in order to transfer pictures. If Nikon or Canon were to make a camera with WiFi for seamless transfer and social media, add GPS, and a high quality display, not only would the price be outrageous, it would be similar to an iPod Touch, without an App Store, or any of the iOS software that makes an iPod Touch so much more than just a camera. Who would purchase such a device?

You may argue that the quality of a point and shoot is exponentially greater than a smartphones, however the baseline smartphone camera is increasing. If you use the iPhone as your benchmark, attacked by critics for its weak shots and lack of quality, you’ll see the iPhone and iPhone 3G with pitiful 2 MP cameras unable to shoot video (however 15fps low, low quality videos are possible via jailbreak) and the iPhone 3GS making negligible increases by using a 3MP camera that shoots VGA video. When the iPhone (original) was announced, the higher-end smartphones already sported 3MP cameras with VGA. Apple was already two years behind the curve. In 2007, the average point and shoot advertised between 8-10 MP. Today, the iPhone 4 has a 5MP camera, the minimum to show off the Retina display.

The iPhones are the baseline, but looking at Windows phones and Android, which surface every month, a better look at the advancement of the smartphone camera is possible. In October 2008, the HTC G1, the first Android phone, had a 3.2 MP camera. I would lose your interest detailing the cameras of every Android phone, but in March 2010, the HTC Droid Incredible was announced with a ridiculous 8MP camera.  I got a chance to demo this phone, and  the pictures look amazing. 8MP is enough to make a good looking 8×10, the maximum the average consumer would need- looks great on the screen, in a photo album, online and on a mousepad or calendar.  At the Mobile World Congress of 2011, 8MP was almost standard. Even the thinnest phone, the Samsung Galaxy S II had a 8MP camera.

Does this mean the smartphone has caught up with the point and shoot and if not beaten it out of the market? Not yet. Smartphone cameras still have some problems (color reproduction, splotches) which should iron out soon, but we aren’t far away. Point and shoots are now commonly at 12MP, which is more than most amateur photographers will need.

As smartphones become more and more powerful, the point and shoot will die. D-SLRs however, are perfectly safe. Those who buy them understand they’re paying for quality that the smartphone will never achieve without a large lens poking out the back. After all, smartphones still have weak or non-existant optical zooms.   Single and dual LED flash is also becoming increasingly common on smartphones, defeating an earlier weakness – low-light situations.In addition, forget the entry-level camcorder or the Flip camcorder- the newest Android phones will have cameras able to record and encode 1080p HD video. Mindblowing.

What will Apple define as our baseline for 2011? Will it shoot 1080p video and/or reach 8MP?  We’ll see in July.